Last verified: October 16, 2026, against the sources linked below. Written by Casey Steward.
The usual advice: leave after 5 years for similar private pay and it’s no big deal; leave at 25 years and you’d need maybe $20,000 a year more to break even. First, the good news: leaving early never means losing everything. Leave with 5+ years and no refund and you keep a deferred pension for life. The question is how much of the full-career package you give up, and what that costs in salary. Here’s the model, every assumption, and the numbers.
The short version
- You keep a pension. Leaving before your minimum retirement age (MRA) with 5+ years gives you a deferred annuity for life: in our example, $3,279/yr from 62 after 5 years, up to $29,612/yr from 60 after 25 years (OPM).
- You give up the bigger full-career annuity, the FERS supplement, and FEHB in retirement. The deferred annuity also uses a high-3 frozen at the day you leave.
- Extra pay needed, if you’d work to 62 either way: about 12% of salary if you leave at 5 years and 28% at 25 years (about $19,000 a year in 2027 dollars).
- If you’d retire at 57 either way, leaving at 25 years means replacing the lost value in just 5 years: about 86% of pay. That’s the cliff.
The hypothetical and the assumptions
One made-up employee, regular FERS, hired in 2027 at age 27, so the MRA of 57 arrives with exactly 30 years. Every number below is this person; yours will differ. Run your own in our FERS pension calculator.
| Assumption | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Starting salary | $60,000 (2027) | A round number |
| Raises | 3% a year | Stated assumption, not a forecast |
| Discount rate and savings return | 5% a year (sensitivity: 4% and 6%) | Same rate both ways, so the comparison is fair |
| Life expectancy | Payments to age 85 | Simple planning horizon |
| COLA | 2% a year from age 62 | The FERS “diet COLA” gives 2% when inflation runs 2% to 3% (5 U.S.C. 8462(b)) |
| FEHB value | Government share, Self Only, ages 57 to 65, growing 4% a year | 2027 maximum government contribution is $352.04 biweekly × 26 = $9,153 a year (OPM premiums). We stop at 65 because Medicare takes over as primary; counting FEHB to 85 would make staying look even better. |
| FERS supplement | 30/40 × an assumed age-62 Social Security benefit of 30% of the high-3, ages 57 to 62, no earnings-test reduction | OPM computes it as years of FERS service ÷ 40 × the estimated benefit (OPM). The 30% is our assumption. |
| Private job | Same pay path, no pension, 401(k) match equal to the TSP match, employer health coverage while working | So the only difference is the pension, supplement, and retiree FEHB |
| Inflation (for 2027-dollar figures only) | 2.5% a year | Converts future dollars to today’s |
| Retirement age | Same for both paths: 57, or 62 | Comparing someone who retires at 57 with someone who works to 62 isn’t fair to either |
The model runs in nominal dollars; we convert the headline figures to 2027 dollars so they’re comparable with today’s pay. “Value at 57” means a lump sum at age 57 that would fund the same payments. Survivor reduction is ignored on both paths.
Staying to 57: the full-career benefit
High-3 at 57: the average of the last three salaries, $137,316 (see how the high-3 works). With 30 years at the MRA, this is an immediate, unreduced MRA+30 retirement (5 U.S.C. 8412(a)), at 1% because they’re under 62 (5 U.S.C. 8415; FERS pension calculation):
- Annuity: $137,316 × 30 × 1% = $41,195/yr. Present value at 57: $736,988.
- FERS supplement: 30/40 × (30% × $137,316) = $30,896/yr until 62 (5 U.S.C. 8421). Present value: $140,452.
- FEHB government share: $9,153 × 1.0430 = $29,687 in the first year of retirement, ages 57 to 65. Present value: $229,728.
- Total: $1,107,168.
Leaving early: the deferred annuity
Leave before your MRA with 5+ years and no refund, and you get a deferred annuity based on the high-3 at separation, with no supplement and no FEHB or FEGLI re-enrollment (OPM; 5 U.S.C. 8413). With under 10 years it starts at 62; with 10+ it can start at the MRA, reduced 5% per year under 62; with 20+ it’s unreduced at 60. For each case we used the start age with the highest present value at 5%. The mechanics are in our guide to quitting at 45.
No COLAs accrue between leaving and the start date, and the high-3 is frozen, so a 2032 salary pays a 2062 pension. That’s the main COLA difference, and it’s already in the numbers. Both paths get the same diet COLA from 62.
The numbers: you keep, you give up
Retire at 57 either way. The stay path is worth $1,107,168 at 57 (about $528,000 in 2027 dollars). “Value lost” is that minus the value of what you keep.
| Leave after | You keep (deferred annuity) | Value kept at 57 | You give up (value at 57) | Extra pay to 57 | First-year extra, 2027 $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 yrs (age 32) | $3,279/yr from 62 | $43,758 | $1,063,410 | 19.3% | $11,838 |
| 10 yrs (age 37) | $5,702/yr from 57 (−25%) | $102,013 | $1,005,155 | 25.0% | $15,766 |
| 15 yrs (age 42) | $9,915/yr from 57 (−25%) | $177,392 | $929,776 | 33.8% | $21,806 |
| 20 yrs (age 47) | $20,435/yr from 60 | $307,160 | $800,008 | 47.4% | $31,354 |
| 25 yrs (age 52) | $29,612/yr from 60 | $445,103 | $662,065 | 85.7% | $58,059 |
The start age shown is the one worth the most at 5%. For the 25-year leaver: $29,612 unreduced at 60 is worth $445,103, beating a 25%-reduced start at 57 ($397,333) or waiting to 62 ($395,161). The annuity amount is frozen in the year you leave; it isn’t inflation-adjusted.

Work to 62 either way. This is the more realistic comparison for most people who leave at 47 or 52: they take another job, not a hammock. The stayer works to 62 with 35 years, which unlocks the 1.1% multiplier (62+ with 20 years at separation; 5 U.S.C. 8415): $159,186 × 35 × 1.1% = $61,287/yr from 62, with FEHB from 62 to 65 and no supplement (it’s only paid to people who retire before 62). Value at 62: $1,151,117.
| Leave after | You keep | Value kept at 62 | You give up (value at 62) | Extra pay to 62 | First-year extra, 2027 $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 yrs | $3,279/yr from 62 | $55,848 | $1,095,270 | 12.2% | $7,514 |
| 10 yrs | $5,702/yr from 57 | $130,198 | $1,020,920 | 15.2% | $9,569 |
| 15 yrs | $9,915/yr from 57 | $226,402 | $924,716 | 19.0% | $12,233 |
| 20 yrs | $20,435/yr from 60 | $392,023 | $759,095 | 22.5% | $14,875 |
| 25 yrs | $29,612/yr from 60 | $568,077 | $583,040 | 28.2% | $19,089 |
How “extra pay” is computed
The extra pay is a fixed share of a private salary that grows 3% a year, saved in a tax-deferred account earning 5% from the year after you leave until the shared retirement age. Required share = value given up ÷ the sum of each future salary grown at 5% to that age, minus 4.4%: the FERS contribution you stop paying (employees first hired after December 31, 2013: 10.6% minus the 6.2% Social Security tax rate; 5 U.S.C. 8422(a)(2) and (a)(3)(C); OPM BAL 14-102). The first-year dollar figure is that share of the first private salary, converted to 2027 dollars.
Example, 25 years, work to 62: $583,040 has to be built over 10 years. That’s 32.6% of pay, minus 4.4% = 28.2%, or $35,391 in the first year (2052 dollars), about $19,089 in 2027 dollars. Retire at 57 instead, and the same job has only 5 years to do it: 85.7%.
Sensitivity: discount rate
| Leave after | To 57: 4% / 5% / 6% | To 62: 4% / 5% / 6% |
|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 24.6% / 19.3% / 14.9% | 16.6% / 12.2% / 8.7% |
| 10 years | 30.7% / 25.0% / 20.3% | 19.7% / 15.2% / 11.5% |
| 15 years | 39.7% / 33.8% / 28.7% | 23.6% / 19.0% / 15.0% |
| 20 years | 53.5% / 47.4% / 42.2% | 27.1% / 22.5% / 18.6% |
| 25 years | 92.4% / 85.7% / 79.8% | 32.9% / 28.2% / 24.2% |
Lower rates make a guaranteed pension worth more.
What the model leaves out
- Coming back. This assumes you never return. The redeposit and reinstatement rules from our quit-at-45 guide don’t apply here.
- Longer careers. Staying past 57 adds more: higher high-3, more years, and 1.1% if you’re 62+ with 20 years at separation (5 U.S.C. 8415).
- The supplement earnings test. If you’d work after retiring at 57, the supplement drops $1 for every $2 above Social Security’s exempt amount (OPM). Set it to zero and leaving at 25 years (retire at 57) needs about 65%, not 85%. The 30% Social Security assumption behind it is ours; use your SSA statement.
- Survivor reduction, sick leave credit, taxes, and job risk. All ignored. A pension can’t be laid off with you; a private salary can.
- Your Social Security. It’s earned either way, so it’s a wash.
FAQ
Is it worth staying in federal service for the pension?
It depends heavily on when you’d retire. If you’d work to 62 anyway, a raise of roughly 12% to 28% of pay (more the later you leave) covers it in our example. If you’d retire at your MRA, the last years are worth far more.
Do I lose my FERS pension if I leave early?
No. With 5+ years and no refund you keep a deferred annuity for life: $3,279 a year from 62 after 5 years in our example, $29,612 a year from 60 after 25 years.
Why does leaving at 25 years cost so much more if I retire at 57?
You give up less in total, but you only have 5 working years to replace it, and you lose the supplement and retiree FEHB that come with retiring at your MRA. Spread over 10 years to 62, the cost drops to about 28% of pay.
What discount rate should I use?
There’s no single right one. We show 4% to 6%. A lower rate (closer to safe bond yields) values a guaranteed, COLA-protected pension more.
Run your numbers: FERS pension calculator
Related: Quitting at 45 With 20 Years · How Your FERS Pension Is Calculated · How the High-3 Works
Run your own version: the Should I Leave Federal Service? calculator compares your pension and FERS supplement for leaving now vs. later. No login, nothing stored.
Sources
- OPM, Types of Retirement (Deferred, MRA+30, FERS Annuity Supplement, MRA table)
- OPM, FEHB premiums and 2027 government contribution
- 5 U.S.C. 8412, 8413, 8415, 8421, 8422(a)(3)(C), 8462
- OPM BAL 14-102, FERS-FRAE contribution rates
- Model: The High Three’s own calculations from the assumptions above.


